Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
نویسندگان
چکیده
Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal climate science. Here, we compare representation observed SST since 1960 initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from 5th 6th phases Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized hindcasts CMIP6 explain 88% variance post-1980 gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% simulations) compared 42% (8%) CMIP5, indicating more prominent role for forcing driving changes than previously thought. Analysis single-forcing experiments suggests much this correlation is due natural forcing, explaining ?55% variance. The amplitude underestimated improved by initialization CMIP6, continued value SST.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307